Sunday, January 16, 2011

postheadericon Oscar&Emmy Musings: Manage the Odds on The Golden Globes

 We will certainly be watching NBC’s telecast of the Golden Globes on Sunday, Jan. 16, and wondering if the most accurate predictions of this glitzy 68th annual event may be coming from . . . bookmakers? Yes, in a culture where we can seemingly bet on anything, the Vegas odds-makers have established clear Golden Globe favorites, and where money is involved, attention must be paid. Let’s break out the seven major movie categories:

  • Best Actor/Drama: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech) is their 1-4 overwhelming top choice, and nowhere here (or in the Oscars, rest assured) is there a surer thing.
  • Best Actor/Comedy or Musical: Johnny Depp (for Alice in Wonderland; he’s also nominated for The Tourist) is the 3-2 favorite in a very weak field, but it wouldn’t surprise me if a 7-2 long-shot like Kevin Spacey (Casino Jack), a two-time Oscar winner and a fave with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, wins the prize and rides it to another Oscar nomination.http://static.technorati.com/11/01/11/24881/NATALIE-PORTMAN-BLACK-SWAN.jpg
  • Best Actress/Drama: No suspense here. Natalie Portman  (Black Swan) is the 1-3 choice, and I’m thinking that three of the nominees here—Portman, Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) and Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole) have Oscar nominations in their future.
  • Best Actress/Comedy or Musical: Annette Bening  (The Kids Are All Right) is the strong 1-3 top selection, and, along with Portman, may be an Oscar favorite. Her costar in the film, Julianne Moore, is also a nominee, but more likely to get a Supporting Actress nod for the Oscars.
  • Best Picture/Drama: The Social Network is the 3-2 favorite, but I’m picking an upset here, the 3-2 second choice, The King’s Speech. Expect all five nominees in this category to get five of the 10 Oscar Best Picture nominations, these two, as well as The Fighter, Inception and Black Swan.
  • Best Picture/Comedy or Musical: An easy win for future Oscar nominee, The Kids Are All Right.
  • Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network) has already won numerous prizes, including those from New York and Los Angeles Film Critics, and this past week earned a Directors Guild of America nod. He’s the 1-3 man to beat here, but Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech), another DGA nominee, is a strong second choice.

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