Oscar & Emmy Watch: Musings & Misgivings: Predicting the Oscar Nominations

In the wake of all the furious yapping and debate over Ricky Gervais’s performance last Sunday as Golden Globe Awards host—was he hilariously on the edge or hopelessly off the wall?—you’ll understand if few in Hollywood, a week later, still care a lick about that particular tempest. Or, for that matter, if they even remember who the night’s winners were. For Tinseltown’s movers and shakers, there are greater anxieties on the immediate horizon. Studio executives and stars, along with their agents, publicists, accountants and herbal therapists, can now officially break out the bottles of Maalox and steady their nerves awaiting the announcement of 2010 Oscar nominations on Tuesday morning, Jan. 25.
For the nominees, of course, it’s a big career boost followed by all the attendant press hoopla and interviews in which most utter—unconvincingly, to be sure--the even bigger lie: “It’s an honor enough just to be nominated.” Well, yes, it is an honor of sorts—just not enough of one to make up for not actually winning the big prize. And for those depressed souls shut out of a nomination, it’s a case of wait until next year—maybe. Award-worthy parts don’t come along often, and has been noted in this column before, even all-time greats such as Edward G. Robinson and Fred MacMurray went an entire career without a single acting nomination. So if, for example, the oddly underrated Mark Ruffalo, who’s never really given a bad performance in a solid career, misses out on his first nomination for The Kids Are All Right, who knows when, if ever, his next opportunity will come.
That being said, and having brewed the requisite tea leaves, here is how I see the six major categories shaping up:

BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth  ,The King’s Speech
2. James Franco  ,127 Hours
3. Mark Wahlberg , The Fighter
4. Jeff Bridges , True Grit
5. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
*But watch out for: Robert Duvall, an Academy favorite, for Get Low. And is it really possible that Jesse Eisenberg will NOT be nominated for The Social Network? Being part of an ensemble film sometimes costs. There’s invariably one out-of-nowhere Indie that grabs major nominations—I’m thinking this year it’s Blue Valentine and that it propels Gosling. It does appear, however, that everyone but Firth is playing for second place. If there’s a sure thing come Oscar night (Feb. 27), it’s him.

BEST ACTRESS
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening , The Kids Are All Right
3. Michelle Williams , Blue Valentine
4. Jennifer Lawrence , Winter’s Bone
5. Julianne Moore ,  The Kids Are All Right
*But watch out for: Moore showing up in the supporting-actress category, with her spot here taken by Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole. This shapes up as a two-woman race between Portman and Bening.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
3. Jeremy Renner, The Town
4. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
5. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
*But watch out for: a sentimental nod to the late Peter Postlethwaite for The Town, or, if you like equally long shots, Guy Pearce for The King’s Speech or Matt Damon for True Grit. Maybe the single most competitive category—Bale’s the slight favorite, but they all have a legitimate shot.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter
4. Mila Kunis, Black Swan
5. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
*But watch out for: whether Julianne Moore does indeed land in this category and push out the young Steinfeld. Leo gave the performance of her career and is the one to beat.

BEST PICTURE (10 nominations)
1. The King’s Speech
2. The Social Network
3. The Fighter
4. Inception
5. Black Swan
6. The Town
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. Toy Story 3
9. Blue Valentine
10. True Grit

BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
3. David O. Russell, The Fighter
4. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
5. Christopher Nolan, Inception
*But watch out for: Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan. Darker horses: Ben Affleck for The Town, and Lisa Cholodenko for The Kids Are All Right